WHEN TO UNLOCK THE LOCKDOWN TO PREVENT ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE?
“There are mountains beyond mountains.” – Haitian Proverb
The reason lockdown was ordered, in the first place, by Government officials was that they were caught unprepared and clueless about what to do in the face of this deadliest pandemic. There were no anti –viral medications, no vaccines, no required medical supplies, no PPEs, not enough respirators and hospital beds. Neither was there any reliable diagnostic testing kits to diagnose and quarantine infected population.
Under these circumstances, the only option was to institute a total lockdown of every business, gathering, school, sporting event and houses of worship. In addition, ordering a sheltering-in-place, social distancing practices and wearing facemasks when shopping for essential needs was required. Only with these drastic measures could the spread of Coronavirus infections and rampant deaths be prevented. Hopefully by doing this, enough time will be gained to get better prepared and to figure out what to do next.
One of the basic laws of nature is the action – reaction law. This law is also Newton’s third law of motion. Simply put, for every force of action there is opposite force of reaction. Action and reaction forces have to be equal in magnitude to neutralize each other.
In the case of Coronavirus’s actions, unfortunately we have not been able to create stronger forces of reaction. Therefore the actions of Coronavirus will continue unabated, until we discover an effective vaccine and/or proper antiviral medications. Even though a tremendous amount of worldwide research is going on, we are far away from this goal.
At the present time, the only hope we have is by taking these drastic measures to control the viral spread and enough people will survive the illness is by developing a “herd- immunity.” And consequently the incidence of new infections, hospitalization and mortality rates, after reaching mountain peaks, would start coming down. This trend should be observed for at least two weeks (the incubation period of virus). Only then we could unlock the lockdown and gradually and cautiously start opening businesses. But dutiful social isolation must continue. We also need a significant upgrade of testing ability and contact tracing to be successful.
This is science and public health experts should dictate decision, it is not a political decision. In the time of crisis, we should always be guided by science and scientists and not by politics and obsession with money. Otherwise, the Coronavirus could linger around and storm back with a vengeance, either by mutating to change its genetic makeup or by joining forces with seasonal flu to cause more devastation. Only time can tell us what would happen with premature and wrong decisions.
Economically, we could survive one or two more months and the economy could always come back, but theloss of precious, human lives (so far in the USA, more than 70,000 and estimated to go up as much as 100,000 deaths), could never come back.
I have a sad feeling when I see so many similarities between the Chernobyl nuclear accident and ensuing cover up after the events, which were considered telltale signs of dissolution of the Soviet Union. Similarly, the devastating Coronavirus pandemic and ensuing after events in the USA such as belittling, unpreparedness and putting politics and cronyism ahead of science, could also be considered telltale signs of failed American leadership and decline.
PS : Journal Watch- I have decided to add a new feature to my articles to share important current medical news with my readers.
A study from China ( JAMA, March 2020 ) demonstrate variable positive rates ( % ) for COVID- 19 with swab tests: Bronco- alveolar fluid 93 %, Sputum 72 %, Nasal swabs 63 %,Pharyngeal swabs 32%, Feces 21 %, Blood 1 %., Urine 0%.
Comment:This study raises concerns about ruling out COVID – 19 at a single time point. False negative results could be common.
