DEVESTATING CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
WHY WE WERE NOT READY FOR IT?
“Facts don’t cease to exist because they are ignored.” -Aldous Huxley
Even though I am neither a virologist nor an epidemiologist, I would like to raise some important questions that I believe have not yet been addressed by Government officials, Pundits, the press, TV, social media or medical societies. Before I do that, I would like to explain frequently used glossary (medical jargons) in simple terms for better understanding the issues at hand:
Epidemic– An epidemic is an unexpected regional outbreak and spread of an infection.
Pandemic - A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a disease that that affects huge numbers of people all over the world.
Coronavirus– Generic name for a group of viruses that commonly seen in animal and humans, generally cause mild illnesses like thecommon cold, but sometimes causes more serious illnesses like SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) or MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome). They are called Coronaviruses because they possess spike like structures on their surfaces resembling the sun’s corona.
COVID-19 - A technical term for the new coronavirus that was first detected in China in 2019, causing pneumonia, named the “coronavirus disease 2019” or COVID-19.
Incubation Period - The time it takes for disease symptoms to appear after a person is infected. The novel coronavirus has an incubation period of 2 – 14 days. The disease is most infectious during this period because patients are not sick and no precautions are taken. Only by testing everybody could we identify these people and isolate them so that the spreading of the disease could be prevented.
Social Distancing– It refers to physical space between people to prevent the spreading of the disease with rate cough droplets. This distance should be 6 feet (2 meters).
Fatality Rate – The number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases. The fatality rate for new coronavirus estimated to be 3%.
Community Spread- Appearance of the infection spreading in the community from asymptomatic patients. This could occur during the incubation period or the virus established in a ”chronic carrier state” within the community.
Epicenter– The place where most infections occur.
R-naught or RO- The basic reproduction number of virus that show the transmission rate. If RO is above one, it is expected to infect at least one person. Coronavirus cases tend to double in 6 days.
I believe it’s fair to ask following questions. I shall use a Q and A format and try to answer them as I see it, with my humble opinions:
Q – What is the source of this deadly virus? Why did it first start in China?
A - I believe China is perfect host country for a virus to grow and to spread, because China is the most densely populated country in the world. Population density promotes the spreading of infection very easily. In addition, the Chinese people have an ancient culture of having a big and poorly regulated live wildanimal market, to consume wild animal meat and use certain animal parts for medicinal purposes. They believe that this provides them with magical healing powers. The Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus. It has been documented that the source of virus was from live bats in the wild animal market in Wuhan city in central China.
Q – What the Chinese Government supposed to do when it was established that the cause new of atypical pneumonia was a new coronavirus?
A – When an idealistic young Chinese doctor Li Wenliang, who later on died of the disease, noticed a group of patients with a SARS like lung disease, he warned fellow doctors and posted his concerns on social media on December 1, 2019 about the possibility of a new disease outbreak. He was reprimanded by local government officials and accused of “making false statements.” This information was censored and neither the public nor higher government official was notified. The disease continued to spread because this coverup. So much so that on December 31, the WHO was notified by the Central Government and health officials about a mysterious, fast-spreading infectious disease. On January 7, 2020 Chinese scientists identified the new virus and mapped the genome of the new Coronavirus and shared it with the scientists of the world. By January 20, the disease had rapidly spread through China and other countries like S. Korea, Japan, Thailand, the USA and other countries. On March 11, 2020 the WHO officially declared that the new coronavirus disease infection had become a deadly pandemic. From this timeline, it becomes very clear that there was a significant delay notifying the world about the seriousness of this new pandemic by the Chinese Government officials and by the WHO.
Q – Could it be possible that the origin of this new coronavirus is a random mutation from one of the existing coronaviruses?
A – I believe it is very possible. We know from the study of evolutionary scientists thatenvironmental factors are driving force behind evolutionary genetic mutations. It is very possible that the consequences of climate changes like wild fires, extreme temperatures changes, hurricanes, flooding, drought, raising sea levels, sinking coastal cities, the extinction of many animal and plant species caused drastic changes in the environment are thereby triggering adaptive genetic mutations in every creature. If this theory is correct, it could be said that this new devastating coronavirus pandemic is the revenge of Mother Nature. Nobody can fool Mother Nature
Q – Why was the USA and other western nations caught unprepared for this ravaging pandemic?
A – There has been and there will always be new diseases like COVID -19 emerging as pandemics, so long as we ignore scientific facts, the ever increasing human population, habitat encroachments, wildlife poaching, international wildlife and animal trade and illegal trafficking. Therefore, every nation should have a well financed, properly stocked and functioning pandemic preparedness program. In the USA, our present administration not only ignored scientific advice but had also cancelled the existing pandemic preparedness program in 2018. This is why there is shortage of everything in the USA and other countries to fight this devastating pandemic.
Q – What is the worst case scenario about what could happen in the world and in the USA with this pandemic?
A – Epidemiologists estimate that 40-to-60% of the world’s 7 billion population could be infected and 3% of infected people will die. In the USA, 2-to-200 million people could be infected and as many as 1.7 million could die, since there is no medication to threat it and no vaccine to prevent it.
Q – If this pandemic was first minimized and then later on declared as World War III, against an invisible biologic enemy by the President Trump, why then are all the nations of the world not getting together to use their collective financial might and scientific knowledge to establish a united front against this deadly enemy?
A – Your answer is as good as mine. Indeed pitting a country against the other, leaving poor countries in the mercy of rich one is inhumane and will provide no victory. To me, this shows that there is a vacuum in the world’s leadership at the present time.
